A Comeback? Let’s Put That Aside. Real Madrid Have Shown Us Nothing This Season

These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.

It was asked right away pitch-side: Real Madrid are a team of resilience, but they have never come back from a 3 – 0 scoreline — so… can they do it?

Ancelotti raised his eyebrow and smiled.

I brought it back full circle, asking him, in the final question of the press conference on the night, how Real Madrid can logically come back — what are the actual things the team can do differently on the football field?

The answer: “Belief”. And that “anything can happen at the Bernabeu”, and, that “no one expected Rice to score two free-kicks”, and that “based on what we saw in the game, we can’t come back, but, football changes”

I was hoping for some more tangible things, like putting together a coherent plan in the build-up phase, finding solutions to defensive coverage leaks, taking care of the ball in the face of a counter-press, and breaking lines. Perhaps making better use of Jude Bellingham other than churning him into a one-man defensive super-hero who has to dribble past three players and put in a dagger through-ball.

In reality, it doesn’t matter what this author thinks, nor does it matter what Ancelotti says — and certainly he doesn’t have to reveal an entire tactical plan to the media. What matters is what happens internally. What matters is that real adjustments are made. This is already an impossible task. If Real Madrid are to somehow come back — if they are to score a quick goal, then another, and then maybe Arsenal buckle under the psychological weight, it will only be done through tactical improvements and better performances from the stars, who were all poor — especially Vinicius Jr whose passing, execution, and decision-making were all horrendous. Vinicius had three shots — none of them on target — misplaced nearly 40% of his passes, and had less touches on the ball than Thibaut Courtois.

‘Aura’ can only take this team so far.

Far too often Real Madrid start slow. 11 times this season in La Liga they’ve conceded first. Far too often, at half-time, it’s the opposing team that makes adjustments while Real Madrid regress. In the first half last night, Real Madrid weren’t at their best, but they did manage to keep Arsenal at bay while mustering a few transition attacks. All those transition attacks vanished in the second half. Arsenal dominated the entire frame. The brief period Real Madrid got on the ball, between Rice’s first goal and second, Ancelotti’s men had no idea what to do with it. It was almost as if Arsenal were laughing in their defensive block, and could control where Real Madrid would pass it to next. Arteta’s men would rotate, push Real Madrid deeper with every pass, until it got all the way back to Thibaut Courtois, who would ultimately give it away via a long-ball hail-mary.

Let’s be honest: Real Madrid’s comebacks of the past few years — as heroic, admirable, and improbable as they were — came in part because the deficit wasn’t as large as it should’ve been: Paris, 2022, they only lost 1 – 0 thanks to Courtois; Manchester, 2022, they somehow only lost by a one-goal margin despite City’s offensive Armageddon; Leipzig, 2024, they escaped with a win because Andriy Lunin had, statistically speaking, one of the best individual goalkeeping performances in recent Champions League history.

Had Real Madrid escaped again with a small margin this time — and maybe they could have if Declan Rice didn’t inject blood samples from Juninho before the game — then going back to the Bernabeu wouldn’t have been such a herculean task. But that’s football. Arsenal deserved a 3 – 0 win — what else can be said?

Still, some will drink the ‘Champions League aura’ kool-aid. By all means. If there is a psychological shift and Real Madrid pull off something they haven’t done since 1985, we can cross that bridge when we get there — but we can’t get there until issues are addressed.

Real Madrid couldn’t keep Arsenal out even when defending deep — now they will have to push their line higher and risk Saka and Martinelli blitzing through open water. Fires will need to be put out. Chaos will descend.

But maybe Real Madrid will thrive in that situation more. In 2013, after getting ripped apart in Dortmund 4 – 1, they came back to the Bernabeu, should’ve scored two goals in the first half, and failed to capitalized. By the time Sergio Ramos scored near the end, it was too late. The second leg was, indeed, much different than the first leg.

But is this team as good as that? We don’t really need to go through, player by player, and put them up against a legendary squad. This one will come up short. The wing-back situation has had 10 layers of paint peeled off since then. That 2013 side had shown signs of what they’re capable of before losing 4 – 1 to Dortmund. This one has shown nothing.

Since we’re on the topic of logic (not emotion and aura): This Arsenal side are arguably the best defensive side in Europe. They’ve conceded just 26 goals in the Premier League, and only Bayern Munich, Liverpool, and Napoli have a better xGA in Europe. They can shape-shift into any defensive set-up. They can defend you in a low block masterfully and they can press you high up the pitch. If their press gets beaten, they can recover quickly in transition. In one instance on Tuesday night, in the 63rd minute, Thibaut Courtois caught a corner kick, and Arsenal sprinted into position so fast, Courtois was forced to hold on to the ball with no outlets to hit on the counter. The play was met by a round of applause from the Emirates crowd.

Real Madrid put in two great performances this season on a big stage: Against Manchester City twice. Manchester City have made a lot of teams look better than they actually are.

Still, Real Madrid did have one player then, that ran the show — Dani Ceballos — who hasn’t appeared since, and will be back for the second leg. But that a team would drop off so much without Ceballos is a symptom of a much bigger problem.

Real Madrid need (much) more from Vinicius and Mbappe. One of the biggest questions I had to close the season: Will they come good in the clutch? With the defense a sieve (don’t disregard the front two not pressing being a large part of that), they need to compensate with efficient offensive surges.

Real Madrid comeback? It doesn’t make sense. Not logically, and barely emotionally. Ancelotti’s men would need to put in their best shift of the season, and show us a version of themselves they haven’t yet. And by that same token, Arsenal, one of the most disciplined sides in the Europe, would have to melt.